The fourth Test between India and England at Old Trafford, Manchester, has reached a gripping stage. At the close of Day 3, England had stretched their lead to 186 runs with three wickets still intact, putting the visitors under mounting pressure.

With the pitch beginning to show signs of wear and overcast conditions expected on Day 4, the balance of the match is delicately poised, but clearly tilted in England’s favour.

Before assessing India’s chances, it is worth revisiting the historical context of run chases at this venue.

Old Trafford is not known for high successful run chases in Test cricket. The highest run chase ever achieved here is just 294 runs, underscoring how difficult it becomes to bat in the fourth innings on this surface. This figure also reflects how the pitch deteriorates and assists bowlers, especially spinners, late in the match.

India’s Road Ahead Is Tough

Team India posted a respectable 358 in the first innings, but their bowlers were unable to stop England’s counterattack. The hosts have batted dominantly, and unless India can wrap up the tail quickly on the morning of Day 4, they are likely to face a daunting target—possibly in excess of 300, which would be historically tough to chase at this ground.

Adding to India’s worries is their dismal record at Old Trafford, Manchester. Out of nine Test matches played here, India have never won—losing four and drawing five. The trend suggests that unless a remarkable turnaround occurs, India’s hopes of leveling or winning the series from here are slim.

The fourth innings will demand grit and skill from the Indian batters—but history, form, and conditions are all stacked against them.