As a seemingly endless cycle of white ball cricket comes to a temporary close with India’s next T20I match not before September, attention turns back to the test arena, where Shubman Gill’s team are preparing for a two-test match series in Sri Lanka beginning August 15 in Galle.

But beyond the tropical heat awaiting the players on the island nation, one question overshadows the remainder of the year-long white ball slates for Team India: will India make it to the final of the World Test Championship?

The Numbers Game: Calculating the Climb Of Team India

After a humbling 2-0 loss at home against South Africa, India sits in fifth place in the WTC rankings with a 48.15 PCT.

To have a shot at the final, history shows that they should be aiming for a PCT of 64 to 68 per cent. Which means, at the very least, that Gill’s men should win at least seven out of their remaining nine Tests.

India’s remaining calendar presents a demanding mixture of away trials and high-pressure home assignments.

Sri Lanka (Away, 2 Tests): A must-win 2-0 series to begin their WTC 2025 account.

New Zealand (Home, 2 Tests): Having been whitewashed 3-0 by India in the 2024-25 series, the Black Caps are a side that has faced India’s best.

Australia (Home, 5 Tests): The Border-Gavaskar series, where India need at least 2-3 wins with several draws to fill the rest of the fixtures.

The Spin Paradox: Technique under pressure

The first challenge in Galle will be dealing with Sri Lanka’s spin, and India’s issues with spin bowling have been an issue throughout the last decade.

Technique has deteriorated with the retirement of great spin batters like Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, VVS Laxman, and Virender Sehwag.

The shorter formats’ rise, particularly the IPL, has resulted in fewer opportunities for players to master the art of batting on turning grounds.

When it comes to pitches, criticism of “unfair” conditions is heard when poor grounds are produced, which detracts from the primary issue, which is that players don’t have enough experience or practice playing on them.

“How are batters supposed to improve their game against spin if the challenges presented by the subcontinental conditions are hidden behind complaints about ‘unfair’ pitches?”

Although defeating Sri Lanka will be crucial, the matches against New Zealand in October would be far more important to the World Test Championship final aspirations.

India’s previous 3-0 series win by New Zealand on their home ground was devastating to their WTC2023 hopes, and a similar result in 2026 will once again destroy India’s chances before the Border-Gavaskar series even begins.

India has not beaten New Zealand in Test cricket since 2009, and the series includes former India limited-overs captain Gautam Gambhir, who led the side to a famous 2016 whitewash.

The Final Word

India enters the WTC 2025 tie with a unique chance to guarantee their spot at the inaugural WTC Final.

A 3-0 sweep of the first three tests, starting with Sri Lanka, will ensure qualification. However, anything less than that, and their destiny will be in the hands of results from Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand.

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